2012-09-01
2012-09-30
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English 166

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for the potential spillovers from the crisis affecting the advanced economies. what can the imf do? well, we can help. we have refrained some of our instruments, effective credit line, for instance. the precautionary and liquidity credit lines which are both instruments aimed at comforting the country that is actually having the right set of policies in place, acts on tape as we say, in many countries have actually used those facilities, the case from mexico, the case for colombia, the case for polling, the case for morocco more recently with a precaution and liquidity lines. and together those not actually exceed the amount of commitment that we have for europe. okay, turning now to low income countries. they have performed relatively well through the crisis, and, frankly, when you look at numbers, starting from a low base admittedly of course, their numbers are generated in excess of any growth numbers we've seen in either advanced or emerging markets economies. but today they're more exposed to shifts in economic fortunes. i do not simply mean the potential fallout from the advanced economies

, managing director of the imf since july a year ago. madam lagarde has obviously been playing a very central role in the management of the global economic and financial crises from its outset, from the prior position as minister i. manson rant and continuing of coors at the home of the imf. she famously attended some of her high school in earlier days here in bethesda. she is a lawyer by training, spent much of her career at a current mckinsey becoming chairman of the global executive committee and then chairman of their global strategic committee in 2004. she then joined the french government in 2005, originally as minister for foreign trade of them as minister for fisheries her brief time and then in june june 2007, just in time for the crisis to hit, she became the first woman to hold the post of minister of finance and economy of any g7 country. a rather notable milestone. she reminds me of is a couple of french men and a frenchwoman who can play a critical role in dealing with the world financial crisis going forward and indeed, that is the case. she should do at the same counsel during

and continuing at the home of the imf. chief famously attended some of her high school in earlier days here in bethesda. she is a lawyer by training. she spent much of her career at baker and mckenzie, becoming chairman of they are global executive committee and then chairman of their global strategic committee in 2004. she then joined the french government in 2005, originally was minister for foreign trade and then minister for agriculture and fisheries for a brief time. then, in june 2007, she became the first woman to hold post of the minister of finance and economy of any g-7 countries. here rather noble milestone. she reminds me -- a rather notable milestone appeare. she chaired the recusing council during her time as finance minister. then, in the g 20, as france share of the g 20 in 2011, she was extremely active in trying to build a lasting reform program to respond to the economic and financial problems that had been uncovered during the course of the crisis itself. did she has received numerous honors, two men -- to many to repeat, but the financial times named kurt european -- na

confetti. >> yeah, they're not fans there in berlin. they think the imf has been going beyond its mandate and acting too much like a bank. meanwhile in washington, they're not pleased because they think the imf is stepping up and do the work that they would rather see germany do. >> we're r. we just like to be pragmatists. coming up, we'll go to berlin where angela merkel is about to speak. >> and then over to new delhi, business travel is giving a boost to the hotel business. chairperson of park hotels will be here. >> and sydney, the rba has warned its banks to be wary of the fallout of the eurozone debt crisis. >> and name dropping in new york. we hear from a morgan stanley executive on how their name change will impact the brokerage business. >> are we going to enough places around the world for you today? sydney, berlin, india, new delhi, new york -- >> and there's more to come. >> first, though, the imf says it will cut its global growth outlook. speaking at an event in washington, d.c., christine lagarde urged policymakers to take decisive steps to secure sustained economic growth.

wrote about it. >> i was struck by a comment you made in your interview with the imf survey on friday. where you said, and i quote, asia has been a fantastic partnership for the imf. now, i like that because it's kind of a conventional wisdom that asia was not so happy with the imf ever since the asian crisis. indeed, that the asian for creating their own regional financial mechanism, perhaps in some point to rival the imf. so i was struck and very encouraged by the state. i would like to ask you to elaborate on the. >> i would be very happy to do that. and i think the legacy of what's happened in asia a decade ago was a mixture of resistance, frustration, stigma, reluctance to partner with. and i think a lot of it is fading away. i was in indonesia, i was in thailand right after the meeting visiting other asian countries. i really see that as updating. it's also may be induced a little bit by circumstance but those questions are doing a lot better. they went through a terrible, terrible time, including with us trying to help, but now they are faring a lot better than advanced economi

statistics. on monday, there was a lot of expectation that the imf would make a declaration of censure because of the lack of progress in ameliorating of the quality of statistics. but in the end, they gave argentina more. i want to know what you expect. do think they can do incommoded did that do to now? if not, what will happen in december? >> thank you. you know, the quality of our analysis and the credibility that is associated with our work relies on the brain of our analysis and economists and also on the integrity of the data on which they base modeling in calculation and all of it. so i am determined to make sure that we have the right data. and where we have gaps, that we try to fill in gaps bewitches clearly the case in the financial sector where we -- we try to fill in the gaps, which is clearly the case in the financial sector. the argentinian like football, the real football, what is called soccer here. but we have the choice between the yellow card or the red card. [laughter] i have trust in which people can achieve. sometimes it is the best. so it was a yellow card good

for the official sector holders, new money come either from the multilateral community such as the imf for individual creditors. i know you will not comment on negotiations currently under way, but i'm wondering if you could provide perspectives on how to think about that combination of solution or are there other potential components that are being menaced by the debate at the moment because there is a lot of concern and people go running off in one direction or another. if you can provide perspective on how you think about the passage of potential solutions that one could consider as promoting stability in the financial system. >> i think you are knowledgeable. clearly if much of comments. i'm not going to throw into the intricacies of how much more, how much less. it is important to keep in mind two things that i know which country you're referring to. the fiscal gap, the structural reforms, the financing of the programs, but also the sustainability of the country going forward so it can walk want premise to see that not always with a huge backup data on its back. it's a whole combi

that issue with the i.m.f.'s david lipton >> we see decisions from europe in high political levels and i think we're going to see this fall this shift from the question of what's to be done to how do we go about implementing it. >> reporter: lipton also told me the i.m.f. would be willing to play a larger role in europe if asked. also making headlines here on the european front was the arrival of the president of bundes bank jens weidmann. there were press reports that he is considering tendering a resignation over a dispute with the e.c.b. on the planned bond buying program. when questioned by reuters he gave a terse no comment to those reports. rhonda schaeffler of reuters in jackson hole for "n.b.r." >> susie: still ahead, our market monitor guest explains why he's getting defensive now. we talk with alan lancz of money management firm lancz global. >> tom: about 33 million americans will be hitting the road, boarding a plane or getting on a ship this weekend to enjoy the last days of summer. a.a.a. says that's up about 3% from last year and marks the highest level of labor day trave

public works projects including subway system and expressways. imf deputy managing director supports the additional move china plans to make. he says the state of china's economy affects the global economy including asia and south america. >>> russian president vladamir putin is to enhance supervision of the country's major firms. this is seen as a move to hamper an eu antitrust probe into the gasprom. putin signed the decree tuesday, requiring major russian firms operating overseas to obtain government approval before giving internal information to foreign or international bodies. such firms will also need to get authorization to sell their stocks or change contract terms. earlier this month, the eu launched a probe into gasprom on suspicion it unfairly raised prices in countries. putin criticized the move. countries are heavily dependent on gas sa mrupplies from russia. >>> portugal agreed to postpone belt tightening targets. the portuguese prime minister told reporters that he wants the agreement because the the economy is performing worse than previously projected. they received

it mean an imf program are not an imf program? will it be ratified and active in providing direct support to the banking system in a country like spain? although the attention has been on the european central bank and what it might not do, the preconditions are the critical issue. the quality of the program, the ability to provide direct support to banks. >> what about the scenario is bought -- with deposits in spain? >> it is sort of an important issue that if it continues will be something that can drive this. i think the point that john made are right and one thing he did not mention was we have that european banking unit coming at. essentially, if they can construct this banking union, that would allow you to do deposit insurance, those things are fundamentally uncertain. there is an awful lot of moving pieces here that have to go forward. i would come back to the notion and the sense of what has changed over the last month. to me, the biggest change is the attitude -- >> the question you have to ask yourself is what is that euro about? is a social decision or an economic decision? if

next month. the i.m.f.'s currently forecast calls for growth of 3.5% this year, and 3.9% next. erika miller reports. >> reporter: global economic growth appears to be hitting a wall. a "bric" wall that is. there's growing evidence that economic growth is slowing in virtually every part of the globe, even the world's fastest growing economies. the term "bric" was coined a decade ago to refer to brazil, russia, india and china. but if you were to rank the countries by economic importance, the order would be reversed. >> china's been the engine of global growth a very, very long time. and, now because of its deceleration, it's becoming the drag on global growth, if you will. and that's part of the maturation process. >> reporter: but, for now, at least, it doesn't look like the chinese economy is headed for a hard landing. in 2010, china's growth was over 10%. last year it was 9.2%. this year, the i.m.f. expects it to fall to 8%. but that's still a lot better than what's expected in the u.s. next year. >> i'm predicting 2% to 2.5% g.d.p. growth, nothing wild. probably a bit lower than t

be involving the conditionality and would be involving the imf. so, i think we have a lot more clarity here. i think there were other points as well that were very useful, that emerged out of yesterday's press conference. in particular, the idea that ireland and portugal could actually be part of the ecb purchasing, and that would definitely assist their way of getting back to market access. that's an important issue for the financial markets. i think as well it was fairly clear that the governing counsel was not trying to get some form of seniority for this new purchase program. that, again, is very important because i think investors have been very concerned that ultimately the ecb might find it difficult to avoid being seen to be in some form of senior status for the purchases it makes. so, i think the level of commitment, the general tone of the press conference, always very important. now, concerning the specific point about what the esfs and esm actually do, and what happens next, that is still uncertain, frankly. a lot really is going to hinge upon what spain is going to be asking for h

>> it is too politically correct. >> that doesn't mean you don't change forp policy. you should cut off the imf that gives better descriptions and ruins these countries. it is economic. >> and rich, go ahead. >> wealth of nations. >> and the problem sthere is a fallacy to your argument. >> there usually is. go back to the difference between jimmie carter and ronald reagan. it is political correctness and reagan did the opposite. >> victoria? go ahead. >> rick, the point is, we are handing these people blank checks and then apologizing for it. and going into these places oh, we are so sorry for the random video that a whacko put out on the internet. come on, you have to show strength. >> hold on a second. rick, i know you are not in favor of the money leaking in the wront hands. way to continue the aid to people who share our about. it is our money after all. yes, we want to influence that region but not in the hands of terrorist. >> that's fair enough. but listen to the arguments. suddenly it is about apologies and nonsense that is political. foreign policy does not exist in that realm. >> apol

in negotiations with europe and the i.m.f. about cutting wages and pensions by anything up to 30%. and this in a city where already one in three businesses has closed. >> we have to do something for our future to have a regular job, to have a family. >> all of europe should have a voice against these policies. >> reporter: there will be little reassurance of promises of no more cuts after these. >> there is no scope for any further reductions in wages and pensions beyond this specific package. this is a commitment that the government has made. >> reporter: the greeks have been told that before. >> yes, they have been told that before. but should the government not meet that commitment, in my mind that would mean the end of this government. >> reporter: the protest was brief. it was all over within a couple of hours but there are many difficult votes ahead here in the greek parliament and no one expects that to have been the end of the trouble. >> ifill: the violence in athens came hours after police and demonstrators fought in the streets of madrid, spain. on tuesday evening, 6,0

it's outlook for the global economy. the i.m.f.'s managing director says the trend has been clearly heading down. and, as darren gersh reports, she is calling on leaders in europe and the u.s. to change direction. >> reporter: the managing director of the i.m.f. has been described as the world's chief financial fire fighter. and today, christine lagarde urged policy makers in europe to make sure another spark doesn't re-ignite the crisis. >> we need a sustained rebound, a sustained rebound, not a bounce. if this time is to be different we need certainty more than uncertainty. and we need decision makers to turn into action takers. >> reporter: again and again, european leaders have shown they follow dramatic breakthroughs by enacting them slowly or not at all. the latest example is a plan to create a european banking union. over the weekend, e.u. leaders clashed over how fast they should move to put reforms in place. >> it shows a little bit the contradiction of the european project. in many aspects and certainly financially and economically, it is one nation, it's one economy, and

foreign domination. the imf is seen as another in a succession of foreigners who have come in and told egypt what to do with its economy. host: good morning. thank you for waiting. caller: my question is how the united states senate for given egypt of the $7 billion loan -- now, today, as of today, we have a new president there in egypt. i was born there, but i was raised in this country. this gives me a more open opportunity to understand what the middle east people cannot understand. i have a question. even though my wife was a supporter of anwar sadat, i was against him for going against jerusalem, because that is an occupied country of palestine. the current situation is the arab countries have to be united as one because they are all mediterranean, mediterranean greeks and mediterranean battalions, and so forth. all of them have great food, great cultures. -- mediterranean italians. we are changing that to a group of hateful people with religious codes. i understand what that is and i do not appreciate it. host: we will stop you on that point. thank you for calling. steve cook? gu

including subway systems and expressways. imf deputy managing director jumin supports the additional move and says the state of the economy affects the global economy including asia and south america. >>> let's check on the markets now. the dow jones industrial average ended about half a percent higher at 13,323, the highest level in almost five years. see how the stocks are trading wednesday and in japan we go to rumy at the stock exchange. how are tokyo stocks kicking off? >> indeed, a lot of anticipation and investigators are keen to see not only what the federal reserve will do when it wra up its two-day meeting on thursday and also in germany where a constitutional court will be giving its verdict on the legality of eurozone bailout funds, so a couple of big focuses there as well. let's see how the markets are opening up this wednesday and both indexes trading higher so a little follow through there from the u.s. markets that you just went over there. let's not forget the nikkei ended lower yesterday on a touch of profit taking and in fact did break below 8,800 at one point but did m

to brief his german counterpart on the latest austerity package. at the end of the week, the eu, imf, and ecb tricot will reevaluate the process and they will determine whether or not happens receives the latest installment of bailout funds. >> on to the markets. european share start of the trading week with their biggest one-day gains in a month. our correspondent send us this information from frankfurt. >> there's no doubt the discussion about monetary policy continues to be the main driver in the markets. but that is why non-official statements draghi made in brussels are playing an even more important role. draghi reportedly said an intervention of the ecb is needed because the antar-bank system is malfunctioning meaning the financial system within the eurozone. that the reason to investors to continue to bed on held by the reserve bank and to continue to bet on rising stock prices. >> conrad in frankfurt. for a closer look on monday numbers, finishing up by more than .6%. stoxx finishing at 2463. no trading on wall street. it is a long holiday weekend and a labor day monday. the

ministers meet and report in a dutch paper suggesting the ecb is negotiating with the imf on the spanish rescue package worth 300 billion euros. stefane is following the story for us. >> reporter: it looks like it's a pretty good report to be honest because 300 billion euros is more or less what would be needed for a spanish bailout, for the amount of this potential deal for spain is credible. regarding the fact that the imf would be implicated in that story, again, it's credible because if you look at what the prime minister rajoy say a few days ago, he said he had no objection to the imf monitoring the spanish compliance with the condition of an international bailout. it's all about the condition of the bailout because if you remember also the prime minister say spain would not accept any additional condition for a bail skrout. he believes that the country fills all the requirement for the bailout in particular with respect to the european budgets target, deficit target that has been set. so basically what rajoy wanted to say he has no objection to check that spain would respect the pu

conditionality you have the euro group involved. should be a role for imf to be there in term of the technical appraisal of how the program will be working. spain which should be seeing some degree of positive movement to come from this. at the same time we have to bear in mind while this is a positive development, the situation in greece is still, of course, hanging in the balance there. and the economic news such as yesterday with the pmi data is suddenly very bad. >> we'll speak to thomas from the euro group and we can ask him about that part of the equation. >> good idea. >> that's kite hanquite handy. >> the question is about spain, if draghi lays it out and says this plan is going to if "x" happens i wonder if it means spain won't have to -- >> your issue for this could be tied up behind closed doors and announced as one big package. it would have a much better impact on markets and that's what would happen if this was done in washington. we discuss europe for many, many years and these decisions take time to get knitted together and this is a sequence we've got. we've got that euro grou

by the end of october, but the head of imf was also quick to reject rumors that spain would soon need a bailout. >> i know there have been some trepidations and speculations as to whether president draghi and myself would be in the negotiations. i can assure you that we are not. >> increase's debt problems were also on the agenda. experts from the troika are in athens to assess progress. >> we call on the troika and greece to continue negotiations and agree on a set of credible measures to close the fiscal gap for 2013-2014. >> but despite the ongoing difficulties, the eurozone ministers say greece is moving in the right direction. >> let's go to moscow where russia's parliament has voted to expel a critic of president vladimir putin. >> the opposition deputy is accused of running a business while been a member of the parliament. that is illegal in russia. the claims the charges are part of a political bent designed to silence opposition. he has spoken at rallies against putin since the russian leader's return to power earlier this year. in just a minute, we will be looking at the wor

union and imf. meanwhile, protests are also flaring up in spain over another round of austerity measures. police baracaded madrid's parliament yesterday, in order to block thousands of protestors who sought to surround the building. the demonstration turned violent, as police in riot gear clashed with the thousands who showed up to protest. the country's government will reveal its 2013 budget tomorrow. within the plan, austerity measures that include a freeze on pensions and new taxes. the government also plans to eliminate certain tax breaks. spain is intending to cut 60 billion euros from its budget by the end of 2014. back in the u.s., more signs of a recovery in the housing market. home prices are up for the third month in a row. record low mortgages, a surge in home sales and fewer foreclosures pushed prices up 1.2% in july. the s&p case shiller index notes over the past year prices are up 16% in phoenix, one of the hardest-hit areas by the housing collapse, and 6% in minneapolis and detroit. however, prices dropped compared to last year in atlanta, new york, chicago, and las vegas

president morsi is in europe and he wants imf money and money from the united states, so the last thing he wants now is to alienate western opinion. >> we go to tripoli. there is a bit of a delay on the line. obvisly, given the death of the american ambassador and the u.s., the obama response to that, give us a sense of the mood, the tension in the country -- in the country today. >> i can tell you that the indians have taken to the streets, albeit in small numbers -- libyans have taken to the streets, albeit in small numbers, soon after the announcement of the death of the ambassador to libya. a lot of people here are very angry. they are also worried about the implication this will have diplomatically, and and a wider context, worried about foreign countries thinking twice about setting up shop here in the future. a lot of people angry, mainly, by what happened. they don't want to be seen in that light. they said that the transition period is difficult enough as it is, and there are a lot of challenges ahead. they are looking to build stronger ties with the west, which they see that they

needed to secure eu-imf loans. the government found nearly 400,000 jobs that went un- reported. each year, the labor department revises employment data. a preliminary revision shows 386,000 more jobs were created in the year ending in march than were reported, which means at least an extra 30,000 jobs were added each month, translating into 133.2 million people working versus 132.8. the .03% job gain is within the standard range of revisions. labor relations observers say the u.s. is seeing a rise in labor disputes leading to public protests and walkouts within the last year-and-a-half. in our cover story, why is labor using these tools, and will it continue? from public employees in wisconsin and chicago to the private sector - at american airlines, caterpiller and nfl referees - labor is sounding off. "...corporate greed has got to go." "in this last year or two, there's been an outbreak of high-profile cases, so many in fact, which may signal the possibility that we'll see additional ones." why is it happening? some believe the recession has improved just enough to the point where rese

of the imf and world bank conferences held in tokyo. >> we clearly still foresee a gradual recovery. but the global growth that we have forecasted 12 month as go, that we have revised six months ago is likely to be a little weaker than we had anticipated. >> legarde says european credit woes and the fiscal cliff in the u.s. are risk factors for the global economy. drastic belt tightening in the u.s. early next year unless democratic and republican lawmakers reach an agreement in time. lagarde is keachi ikeeping an ee japanese economy and a plan for reducing debt. japan carries a greater proportion of dealt on its books than any other industrialized nation. >>> the leaders of japan and colombia are weighing benefits of knocking down some of the barriers dividing their economies. they're expected to make an official decision on starting negotiation for a free trade deal. the prime minister noda and the president santos will decide during talks in new york. the countries have been contukticontukt icontukt -- conducting working studies. if they sign the deal, clom -- colombia's tariff w

to focus in on a story that does not get enough attention -- africa. the imf says that six of the ten fastest growing economies in 2012 are in africa. over the past decade, according to the african development bank, the number of middle-class consumers in africa, those who spend between $2 and $20 a day, has expanded 60% to 313 million. that's about the same size as the middle classes in china and india. health is improving as well. according to the world bank, one key indicator, the death rate of children under 5, is dropping dramatically. over 5% a year in ten sub-saharan countries and over 8% in kenya, rwanda, and senegal. there are even bright spots in the reduction of graph and corruption. ghana, south africa, namibia, rwanda, and botswana each has less corruption, gets this, than italy and greece according to transparency international. governance is improving in many countries. terrorism by islamic extremists remains, but there is progress here as well. having largely driven the al qaeda-linked al shabab from mogadishu, the capital, the city is experiencing the longest period o

. >>> don't give up on the euro says the imf. but will investors heed the fund's call? we'll discuss. >>> schaeuble isn't one to mince words and he's out talking about the future of the euro and the united states. some of the news flashes include him saying that the cooling of the german economy is partly a normalization, the central bank independence has to be respected, that a significant rise in german unemployment is unlikely. and he makes a couple comments about the u.s. saying there's great uncertainty about how the u.s. will deal with the high debt levels that it putting pressure on the world economy. also of interest is that he's saying the source of the eurozone crisis is bad policies and member states. there are people who feel perhaps a little differently, think germany has played more of a role in imbalances. if there's anything else, we'll bring it to you. and the region needs to keep it faith in a single currency, this according to the deputy managing director. he told a world economic forum meeting that the euro was safe and says the if you said strongly supports the e

should say and they don't want the imf in at all, but certainly not before that regional election. so this wait and see mode. but will the markets carry on having patience. and i think the litmus test will be ongoing spanish auctions and the yields that we do see at these auctions. >> jane, thanks for your thoughts on that. we'll be back with more in just a bit. >> more from jane, but let's remind you where we stand just over an hour into trait. we're wasteighted do the down s but it's on the backs of pretty good moves. last week the ftse 100 up 2%. dax last week up 2.7%. 52 week high, up 25% for the year. this is where they stand right now. xetra dax is flat. the cac 40 down just around 0.3% ibex at the moment down around 0.4. bund yields hit 11 week highs on friday. quite a big selloff. today they're trying to reclaw. yields back down to below 1.7%. ten year spanish yields, last week down to a near 5 1/2. this week 5.9. ten year italian yields back over 5%. treasury yields steady at the moment. 1.68. we talked about the currency markets. euro-dollar there, we hit the four month high

exponentially over the last decade. today the international monitoring system or imf is roughly 85% complete and when fully completed there will be facilities in 89 countries spanning the globe. entry into force the full body of technical data gathered by the international monitoring system will be available for a verification purpose to of the parties. the system is already at work to read it detected the two nuclear explosive tests announced by north korea and the capabilities will continue to improve as the system is completed. in addition, with the nuclear crisis we have seen the utility of the imf for the verification related purposes such as the tsunami warnings and tracking the radioactivity from the reactor accident. entry force also will bring to bear the options for the on-site inspections which will clarify ambiguities regarding any potential nuclear test. taken as a whole, the treaty's robust verification regime which supplements hour own state of the art capability for monitoring the national technical means all of these will challenge any state trying to conduct military signif

in loan forgiveness against $2 billion in aid. it is looking for i.m.f. loans and there's no way that president obama can go to congress and ask for money for egypt if morsi doesn't take a pragmatic stand. so he does have choices to make. and i don't think it's that similar until for him to ignore that. >> brown: hisham, pick up on that. without the u.s. support then whatever you want to call it, moderate or however you want to put it islamist government can suffer from more extremism. >> well egypt needs the u.s., egypt needs tourism and investment. and here you have to president of if united states at this moment after the attack on the embassy there and the insensitive of mohammed mors city to go to the congress and ask them to forgive one billion dollars in loan and mohammed morsi is going to washington hat in hand to ask the united states to help him with the i.m.f. for $5 billion loan sometimes we act as if we need egypt, not as if egypt needs us. he goes to china, he says i can use the chinese to put pressure on the united states. this man is still governing as if he's sti

stability? my point here is that the first steps to go to the imf, to the world bank and to enter within the system could be a problem in the future. and we know that islamists are not a problem with the west as long as they are neoliberal and capitalists. >> care about the status of women in saudi arabia, in saudi arabia now coming or in qatar or in older monarchies because they are protecting our economic interests. so you can be a conservative there, you can ban women from driving cars as long as you are protecting our oil and our economic interest. so at the end of the day, they are islamists, they aren't saying there is no democracy in islam, but they have the right take on economy. we have to be serious about this. because at the end of the day what is coming from the islamists now is that they are not resisting the economic power, they are not resisting the transnational corporation, they are ready for it. it might be that this is the point that because they are ready, we can deal with them. there is another thing that is important, and this is why i am saying about the arab awake

with imf chief christine lagarde, this is "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. most of the pain i experience is in my knees. when i think of aspirin, i really think of it as that bottle in the back of my parents' medicine cabinet. finding bayer advanced was huge. i was really surprised by how well it worked. and i'd definitely use it again. put bayer advanced aspirin to the test for yourself at fastreliefchallenge.com. >>> president obama's warning to iran satisfy israel and the critics of the president's foreign policy? joining me former ambassador dennis rob including iran in three administrations most recently the obama white house. he's a middle east diplomacy analyst for msnbc and with the washington institute. so dennis, what about the speech today and the criticism you've heard from dan senor that the president is communicating weakness and is almost taking the military threat off the table by privately communicating and signaling that we really, really don't want to go to war? >> well, i don't think he did that in today's speech. i don't think he personally has done it. he

ahead, the woman who has th whole world's economy in her hands. my interview with imf chief christine lagarde, this is "andrea mitcll reports" only on msnbc. most of the pain i experience is in my knees. when i think of aspirin, i really think of it as that bottle in the back of my parents' medicine cabinet. finding bayer advanced was huge. i was really surprised by how well it worked. and i'd definitely use it again. put bayer advanced aspirin to the test for yourself at fastreliefcllenom manner you start your day... love you, too. ...thinking about what's important to you -- your family... ...the mortgage... the kids' college tuition. [ cellphone ringing ] but life insurance? [ horn honking th wt lity life we want you to think about term life insurance -- taking care of your family's future expenses if something happens to you. it's easy. we get to know you and your needs, then give you our best quote and our competitors'. you choose and save up to 70 that could mean $250,000 of coverage for just $15 a month. we offer plans with no medical exam, and we've been in business for over 1

us economically. if you read the reports of the imf, you'll find that the sanctions had very little economic impact on burma. >> i will ask a question that came from twitter. the question is -- there are a number of agreements and peace negotiations on going in burma. what can the government do to build a trust with the ethnic groups and gain the confidence that the government is in fact responsive to their concerns? what role steeping civil society can play in that peace process in burma? >> there has been some distrust between the ethnic groups and the military government of burma for many years. you have to remember that most of the members of the civilian government and from the old military government. besides, the military still has a very powerful position. an example of the problem now is that some believe the seized policy would not be upheld without the military. it is a question of lack of trust. no one trusts anyone else. that needs time to be built up. i think we need to learn more about conflict resolution from those who have gone through the same experience. even one

finance minister was the head of lehman brothers when it collapsed. the former head of the imf who also was a finance minister under a banking giant that is now being bailed out to the tune of 23 billion euros. >> can you say something about ise role in the housing cris in particular? >> basically, he was asked to handle this banking giant. it was basically several banks rolled into one that became this banking giant. he was asked to manage it. what happened was this banking giant basically had lent a lot of money to building companies that could not pay back the loans. and it also was landing and a lot of money to people who were mortgaging houses who could not return the money. it dug in south into a huge financial hole while at the same time not informing the government or the bank of spain or the right institutions. by the time he quit, it was asking for this huge public bailout. he is now being investigated by the spanish national court for mismanaging this bank. >> maria carrion, we were in spain just after the announcement came down right at the time when the announcement came do

a full application for an eu/imf bail out and that's probably the new piece of information, carl. what's also interesting is we are not selling off in europe. you know, most of what draghi is saying today has been trailed in the press and yet the markets are holding relatively firm. there is no disappointment yet. back to you. >> a good point, no disappointment, no selling on the news. we'll see if it lasts, granted. europe is hanging in there, too. >> look, there was nothing -- a few months ago you would have said i can't believe they will do this, the fact they sterilized the bonds. not like they are printing money so gold is not soaring like i would have liked. not getting hit. hey. neutral isn't so bad versus what we thought could be happening say in the month of june where the germans were simply saying, listen, you know, pox on everybody's house. >> i suppose. corresponding with one of the hedge fund managers whose opinion on this i've always enjoyed, let me just share quickly. the positive is they bought more time to force a nice long depression before the threat of collapse. >>

, in argentina, the imf is warning they need to do more to improve the accuracy of its economic data or else face sanctions, including losing its imf leadership. i just wonder to what extent argenti argentina's resistance to owning up to the true inflation rate in the country, to making the needed talk about supply side issues. how vulnerable is this country to sort of an external financing shock or to further deterioration? >> hugely vulnerable. actually the comparison with brazil and argentina is a very con strungtive one. brazil has some structural problems but that will constrain growth at 3% or 4%, as i said. argentina has massive structural problems, mainly due to failure to really rein in macro policies since the 2001-2002 default and devaluation. it's been underpinned by huge improvement in relation to trade prices and that's really helped to paper over the cracks. >> the country would have a huge problem. the latest rallying price has bailed out. i think it has a lot further to fall. they're losing competitiveness at very rapid rates. we'll see how these things turn around. and don't loo

that the spanish banks are going to be well capitalized subject to the independent scrutiny of the imf and of course the private agencies that were also involved there. i think that's really the most that can be done at this stage because it is going to be very important and at the same time to achieve the necessary agreement on deposit insurance across the eurozone as a whole just given the size of the liabilities that potentially germany could be exposed to. >> julian, good to see you. thanks very much for joining us. >> we know any new levies would increase the uk's desire to not have to participate there. moving on, though, bae systems has said it could be a ban do that talks for the merger. financial times kriling a person close to bae says the group will not go ahead with the merger, quote, if its special security arrangement has to change to look more like that of eads. so what's it mean for the future of the deal? patricia has the latest from frankfurt. how significant is it that these companies sort of reassure the u.s. in particular on this point? >> i think it is absolutely

companies set up shop in the country. the nikkei reported this morning that the world bank, imf and asian development bank are are considering spending loans worth up to $10 billion to support myanmar's economic development. japan is also set to sponsor the program to be discussed at the imf meeting in tokyo next month. that's all from the nikkei business report. back to you you. >> thanks very much for that. how many times have we heard myanmar in this program. every executive is eyeing area for opportunity. lots of activity there. in any case, a quick look at what's on theed a y agenda in a tomorrow. malaysia will announce the details of its 12013 budget. and a vote on the apb deal. >>> meanwhile still to come, getting revved up for the paris auto show. we'll bring you all the latest from the top ceos. >>> david cameron has become the first sitting british prime minister to appear on the late show with david letterman. in the interview, cameron claimed he would help, quote, drum up support for uk business in the u.s. he was then quizzed on british history and culture scoring mixed resul

economic stability? my point here is that the first steps to go to the imf to do the world bank and to enter within the system would could be a pron the future, and we know that islamists are not a problem with the west as long as they are neoliberal and capitalists. we know this. there's an example, and i keep on repeating this and have been repeating this because it was said i was banned from the states, and then it was moved that i'm still banned from saudi arabia for the criticisms that i'm making to a country which is a lie of the united states of america. it's not a democracy. no one care about the status of women in saudi arabia because they are protecting our economic interests. you can be a conservative there. you can ban women from driving car as long as you protect our oil and economy interests. at the end of the day, there are limits. they are saying there is no democracy in islam, but they are the right to take on the economy. we have to be serious about this. at the end of the day, what comes from the islamists now is they are not resisting economic power. they are

protect your people, we are pulling our people and we will go to the imf and make sure you never get another penny. >> sean: shouldn't romney be saying that? >> that's what i would be saying. >> sean: that's what i would be saying. >> he has to. he has to move forward with courage and vision and say, haven't you had enough of this guy and a presidency that continues to bow down and bend over to insurgents and regimes that support terrorists! enough is enough. if this isn't a glaring, frightening example of an abysmal failure of obama administration's foreign policy, what do you need? the guy's gotta guy. >> sean: you were speaking about gel intelligence. it's 4:00 a.m. in the morning in kirow and this is what they are dealing with at 4:00 a.m. when we were watching tahrir square and the punditry class and the liberal meetia -- even though they were getting their punches -- their faces punched n. one reporter was beaten within an inch of her life and raped. but the media and our government -- democracy, this is a good thing. i am saying, what is going to dake over? it was obvious the

and this is what we mean by democratization or do we want economics. they? by point is to go go to the imf and the world bank and enter within the system could be a problem in the future. and we know that islam is or not a problem with the west as much as they are liberals and capitalist. we know this and you have an example and i keep on repeating this and have been repeating this because you know from the states, i am still banned from saudi arabia for the criticism that i'm making to a country which is an ally of the united states of america. no one cares about the status of women in saudi arabia and saudi arabia and qatar because they are protecting our economic interests. so you can be a conservative there. you can ban women from driving cars as you are protecting our oil and our economic interests. at the end of the day they aren't saying there is no democracy in islam but they have the right to an economy. we have to be serious about this because at the end of the day what is coming from islam now is that they are not resisting the economic power. they are not resisting the transnat

fed different dream. i am an immigrant. i believe in the american dream. imf third world guy who has embraced america. all bombing it is an american born guy who embraces the third world ideology. while it is true it is easier to poll of thence down than build the up, there is enormous resilience in the american people they say they were so dumb they go to for him in the first place becky did not to close at -- disclosed who he was. people said it is the simple getting on beyond its racial past. it would be great to have a president that looks like obama and he knew that and could use the hidden power. but four years later, and now we do know him. so now it is not in his hands but in the hands of the american people. >> i am an alumnus of the king's college. they care for what you're doing for the college and this nation. how can we help our families and friends think bright. [laughter] and what they can do to make sure we keep the country as their grandparents did. >> how do we get people to think part of these issues? sometimes i talk to christians do this. they will appeal to the

because there's not enough money that they can restructure with because the, imf would never concede, et cetera. succumbing to spain, i think that you don't want the spanish banks to collapse because that would have dramatic negative effect on europe. but that doesn't mean you have to protect all the creditors and protect the shareholders. there is a way to intervene that does not do that. and that has always been my favorite way of intervening, seems sort of thoughtful piece on a road -- that i wrote in 2008, that's the way to go. and certainly -- [inaudible] >> time for one last question on europe. >> hello? one of the critiques of our market system is an increase in short-term, and a lack of long-term time horizon on the part of investors. and a rise of certifying as capital and productive capital. would you agree with that? and if so, in the spirit of your remarks would you support a tax on short-term negative transactions? >> i think that i'm concerned about that. i don't have enough hard evidence that that's the case, but i don't have evidence that is not the case i'm definitely co

should we give a billion and a half dollars to egypt, why should the imf forgive 5 billion of loans which president morsi needs to survive as a country. >> look, the president of egypt is in a difficult circumstance and i think hisham puts it right. we're sensitive here to our own domestic politics, israel's domestic politics. there's domestic politics in egypt. i think the president was right to be form with president morsi but at the same time understanding of the fact i know you have difficulties but you have to fix them and deal with it decisively because what's at stake here is a relationship. it's a relationship that america needs. we don't want to cut our nose to spite our face in this circumstance. but we need to press him to act like a government, the government that he's become. he's no longer the leader of a religious opposition. he's now the head of the largest state in the arab world. he's got to grow up, act like a man and do the the president is forcing him to do. we have every right to be upset, but we have to limit that. get mad but not that mad. >> at the same time in af

nations. we hired a visors from the i.m.f. and world bank to look at things like and this that and from governments as well, the u.s. government helps saudi arabia. >> it is said that your government was very upset over the way that president mubarak came to an end and you were unhappy wh the united states because you thought because of the relationships that existed between mubarak and the united states you should have done this differently. is that a fair staplt? >> i think probably fair. a fair statement. >> and did you then change your attitude about the united states? did you look at the united states differently after that? >> the united states and saudi arabia have had a strategic relationship since it was established between the late president roosevelt and the late king abdullah in 1945. and we've had our ups and downs over that period. since 1945 we've agreed on many things but chosen to disagree on other things. but we've always come back together on the issue of president mubarak, what is happening in libya, tunisia or egypt i think we have to look to the future on how thing

economically. if you read the i.m.f., i think you will find sanctions in fact have very little economic impact in burma. >> i'm going to ask you a question that actually came from twitter. the question is, there are a number of cease-fire agreements and peace negotiations ongoing in burma with the various ethnic groups, what can the burmese government do to build trust with the ethnic groups and gain their confidence that the government is in fact responsive to their concerns? and what role do you think civil society can play in that peace process in burma? >> there has been distrust between the ethnic groups and the military government of burma for very many years. and now although this is a civilian government, you have to remember that most of the members of the civilian government are from the old military government, and besides the military still has a very powerful position in the achievement of cease-fires. for example the problem now in the kachin state, they believe that the cease-fire agreements will not be kept without the compliance of the military. and they are not certain that t

and choices with the imf, world bank. i think, the economic side of political science, it is quite clear that for the time being, there is an agreement between the american administration and the muslim brotherhood to try to find a way to deal with one another and try to find solutions. this is what i am critical of what is happening with the muslim brotherhood not only political side, but the economic choice. >> and another battle in libya, your book gives a masterful recounting of the behind-the- scenes operations of france in the united states. the only pop the uprising in which they interceded directly -- the only popular uprising in which they interceded directly. could you talk about that? corning much of the oil market even before the western intervention? >> what was happening in libya -- the reaction of russia and china should be understood in the light of what happened in libya. the reaction on syria. they lost their economic interests and that access to the oil resources in libya because of what happens. they took the united nations resolution, no-fly zone, as permission for n

is cut off by the imf and the european union, you have a disablization in the market, something like lehman brothers in 2008. that's what people have to say. could something happen like that? i'm not saying we're getting there. but could something like that happen? it will affect the world economy just as much as lehman brothers, that's what analysts will tell you. >> we have just passed the year, couple of years after that, jim boulden, thank you so much. don't want to go back there at all. jim boulden in london. >>> illegal immigration a hot topic dividing mitt romney and barack obama and the election. what should america do with millions of undocumented immigrants living, studying, working here? we'll look at the candidates' competing plans next. [ male announcer ] truth is, nyquil doesn't unstuff your nose. what? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus liquid gels speeds relief to your worst cold symptoms plus has a decongestant for your stuffy nose. thanks. that's the cold truth! there's a health company that can help you stay that way. what's healthier than that? >>> you might hea

money we send to europe through the imf, to other programs. so there is and indirect money going to europe, but it wouldn't be the qe3 program. in terms of gold, gold is a hard asset. anytime there's uncertainty as to how my people say i'd rather own something tangible that i can hold, that i can feel rather than something that is not tangible appears that the uncertainty is pushed money into gold. of course, also that the federal reserve pouring money into the economy and impacting the dollar, the relationship between the dollar in gold is also impacting gold. i think most money managers would say you want some exposure to gold, but gold certainly has been pricey. in an environment where you know grateful below for an extended period of time, people want assets and not as some of the reasons this boost in polls, not to mention on a smaller scale, secondarily there is demand coming out of india. >> host: maria bartiromo, i want to read these two tweets, both related to what happened in 2008. this is atlanta progressive. we gave this absolute free reign 2,122,008 can lead to devas

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